Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 11 to 19 of 19

Thread: How things are going in your area?

  1. #11
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    6,072

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy Uncle View Post
    When I was working, I used big data to combine with other big data to combine... until we had enough data points to tell a story with the statistics we were using. For instance: I worked on a project that followed several dating sites and determined their "success" rate. Meaning how many first dates turned into marriages. The data were all out there.

    What does this have to do with COVID-1984?

    Statistics. And the numbers are FUBAR. Completely F---d Up Beyond All Recognition. They have been mucking with every data point in the whole set, to the point it's impossible to separate truth from fiction.

    Numbers of new cases: You would think this would be a simple thing to figure out. A patient tests positive, and the bell rings for a new case. But wait! Was the test a blood test, which tests for antibodies, in which case it says the patient HAD the Dread Wuhan flu. If they had the plague, were they already counted? Or was the test a nasal swab, indicating the patient has been EXPOSED to the Chinese Plague, not necessarily CONTRACTED the Wuhan Virus. It has been shown the CDC NHS and labs are counting any positive test as a new case. Because of this, we have no idea what the infection rate is, nor do we know how many people have the disease. This is by design. Inflate the numbers. Frighten the people. Scared people make poor decisions. We even had several major testing labs that reported 100% positive results for infection. How many of those were false positives?

    Numbers of deaths: Another simple number to tabulate. A patient dies of COVID and DING! the bell rings for another death of the plague (and an angel gets its wings). But this number is also corrupted. Anyone dying of anything that tests positive for the China Flu, is counted as dying of the China flu. Never mind the circumstances of their deaths. This inflates the death rate. BUT WAIT! This statistic has a quick sanity check. If so many more people are dying from this virus, we should see an increase in the overall death rate. All things being equal, people die all the time of old age, heart attacks, cancer, car wrecks, industrial accidents, bar bets, and just plain stupidity. Add COVID into the mix and a number that has been tabulated and calculated enumerable times by actuaries for insurance purposes, should see a marked difference. THERE IS NONE.

    WHAT?!?! COVID is not killing extra people? How can this be? Someone is lying. The statistics are off. There is your proof.

    Lets look at survival rates. The survival rate is a ratio of the number of people who survive the virus over the number of people who get the disease, multiplied by 100. That is a number that is not reported much at all. Because the inflated infection numbers and death counts, the survival rate looks FAR better than it really is. Add in all the asymptomatic cases and nobody knows what the survival rate really is. Nobody. How can they? The asymptomatic cases are not tested, not counted, not recognized, which further skews the statistics.

    OK.
    OK.
    OK.

    With big data, there is always a sanity check. Sometimes you have to look around for it, but it is always there. ALWAYS.

    Sanity Check: Statistically, Are these new cases overwhelming the hospitals? We know a certain percentage of people who get sick with the Wuhan Plague, end up in the hospital. You would expect at some point, the hospitals would run out of beds. Let's check. How do hospitals make their money? You would think hospitals make money by providing service, and that is only partly true. They make most of their money by making agreements with insurance companies, called capitation agreements. Meaning the hospital gets paid per head that is subscribed to the insurance company and reserving some beds to cover their agreement. Regardless whether they are admitted or not. Meaning they make more money from some insurance companies by NOT providing service. SCOFF and they call me Crazy. I know it's messed up.

    Looking at the profits of the hospitals (available in any prospectus of publicly traded companies) they are up. Looking at the HMO and PPO providers' profits: they are up in record numbers. WAIT! Insurance companies make money by collecting insurance payments. They lose money by paying that money out for services. If people were getting so sick, shouldn't we see a DOWN trend in their profits? I so got into the wrong business. I only got paid if I WORKED!

    Remember the sanity check? Actuarial tables are calculated out to 6 digits of accuracy and in some cases 8 digits. Insurance companies are in business to stuff their pockets with your cash, and the actuarial tables are in place so they can do just that. A fluxuation in the statistics of 0.00001% would cause a shift in the pricing structure of premiums and underwriting practices. There has been no such fundamental shift.

    And that, class is why the Crazy Uncle calls Bull Huey on the whole thing. and why I have no idea what so ever how things are going in the Democrat Republic of Oregon.

    Bull Huey is the stuff that comes out of the South end of a North-bound bull.

    Makes all kinds of sense to me. Do you have any thoughts or statistics on how cases can be surging to record levels in spite of the fact that almost all the sheep are wearing their masks ?

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    641

    Default

    Statistics are useless in this whole COVID thing. I am sure you have heard the joke:

    Ask a Mathematician what 1 + 1 is and he will tell you "2".
    Ask an Engineer what 1 + 1 is and he will tell you "2.00000000"
    Ask a Statistician what 1 + 1 is and he will ask you "What do you want it to be?"

    In the case of COVID you have had many statisticians monkeying with the data and the results, that nobody knows the truth.

    What do I think? I think, the left needs to exert control over the people. They need to continue the narrative of fear they have sewn over the Wuhan plague. you ask me what my thoughts are on the "Surging" numbers? How do you know they ARE surging? Why are you taking some imbecilic talking head's word for it? At some level we all distrust the MSM and know they are the propaganda arm of the left, so why believe ANYTHING they say?

    Think about this. EVERY new case takes us into record levels. The curve doesn't go down. It is a histogram. They build on previous numbers. If you look at the growth pattern, and we are not in exponential growth. It is more or less linear. This is a VERY good thing. I put a comparison between exponential growth and linear growth below:


    Exp graph.gif


    You can see the linear expression goes up faster at the beginning, and then the exponent catches up and you can see the exponent will go way higher.

    What does this have to do with anything? I think we are in a more or less linear increase. It sounds bad and the talking heads who want to scare the sheep, point to the big scary numbers. But in reality, this and what I wrote prior, means the numbers aren't really that much more alarming than the regular flu. You have to decide how much you want to believe, and what you want to do about it. Me? I am going about my day as normally as I can. I wear a MAGA mask, when they ask me to wear a mask. I require people take off their masks, when they come on to my property. If they have a problem with that, they can go away. I am having Thanksgiving at my house, and I have invited the whole family. I have also told the whole family who I have invited which are 15-20 people across 4 generations. I have told them about my no mask rule. Most of them are adults, and can make decisions for themselves. If they show up, they play by my rules, not by some dictatorial governor, who breaks most of her own rules anyway.
    Last edited by Crazy Uncle; 11-19-2020 at 09:28 PM.
    July 4, 1776 - November 4, 2020
    覧覧覧由IP USA覧覧覧

  3. #13
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    6,072

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy Uncle View Post
    Statistics are useless in this whole COVID thing. I am sure you have heard the joke:

    Ask a Mathematician what 1 + 1 is and he will tell you "2".
    Ask an Engineer what 1 + 1 is and he will tell you "2.00000000"
    Ask a Statistician what 1 + 1 is and he will ask you "What do you want it to be?"

    In the case of COVID you have had many statisticians monkeying with the data and the results, that nobody knows the truth.

    What do I think? I think, the left needs to exert control over the people. They need to continue the narrative of fear they have sewn over the Wuhan plague.

    Think about this. EVERY new case takes us into record levels. The curve doesn't go down. It is a histogram. They build on previous numbers. If you look at the growth pattern, and we are not in exponential growth. It is more or less linear. This is a VERY good thing. I put a comparison between exponential growth and linear growth below:


    Exp graph.gif


    You can see the linear expression goes up faster at the beginning, and then the exponent catches up and you can see the exponent will go way higher.

    What does this have to do with anything? I think we are in a more or less linear increase. It sounds bad and the talking heads who want to scare the sheep, point to the big scary numbers. But in reality, this and what I wrote prior, means the numbers aren't really that much more alarming than the regular flu.
    I think this whole numbers game IS the regular flu. Nobody has the flu anymore, although it is peak flu season. It's all being counted as covid.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    AZ
    Posts
    1,704

    Default

    How can anyone know how many cases there are when the tests are not even half right?

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    46

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bruss01 View Post
    Uptick in cases here, some precautions lifted earlier have made a comeback. Some people are getting lax about things. It's a very human propensity.

    We're still very vigilant here. Wife wanted pizza from her favorite place the other night.... an indulgence these days. After she made the call, I spread out a trash bag on the kitchen island and got another one opened up and positioned over a couple drawer knobs, and set the oven on 400. Pizza arrived, I took delivery on the front porch, had the wife manage front door. Set down pizza box (which delivery guy had handled) on the island (trash bag) and got the box opened up. Wife opens the oven and I deftly slide the pizza out of the box, onto the rack... wife closes the oven while I dump the box in the bag draped over the drawer knobs, toss the bag outside, and wash up my hands. It's a ritual we've gotten pretty good at these past few months. I know the pizza cook staff and delivery guy THINK they're not being careless and not taking risks... but I just don't trust them to always be 100% perfect and we can't afford a slip-up. This at least I can control and taking that sort of control from the outset has kept us well in a state with a lot of infections since February, when they first took cruise ship patients to a military base not 40 minutes from here.

    Now's the wrong time to be letting one's guard down IMHO.

    I'm actually doing the same thing . Not being paranoid, but I guess that's what we will always do unless we see the threat from miles away which is not the case with a virus. So we really need to be extra careful, it's not like it would hurt us in doing these rituals lol. Regardless, I thought I should share and leave this article that I've just read for anyone who's been dealt with the most hardships from this past few months and tell you that it's a good thing that we are still alive and there will always be a brighter day waiting ahead of us.

    http://sensitivenlpcoach.com/is-your...-the-pandemic/

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Chicagoland
    Posts
    2,199

    Default

    if you're following the nationwide reports from the semi-sheeple "preppers" on the more questionable sites like Reddit >>> the pure sheeple in some of these areas are going Virus looney AGAIN - TP and wipe cleanouts - cases & cases of water - canned goods & frozen foods - ect ect

    locally we have massive new case spikes >>> don't see the craze around here

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    6,745

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Illini Warrior View Post
    if you're following the nationwide reports from the semi-sheeple "preppers" on the more questionable sites like Reddit >>> the pure sheeple in some of these areas are going Virus looney AGAIN - TP and wipe cleanouts - cases & cases of water - canned goods & frozen foods - ect ect

    locally we have massive new case spikes >>> don't see the craze around here
    Yeah, I'm seeing the same thing here. Walmart had very little TP and zero paper towels the other day. Lowe's foods, though, was well stocked in both. Things like frozen turnip greens, collard greens, kale, brussels sprouts hard to come by. All kinds of broccoli thought. I started buying a little along of those things after the last shortage was over, so I'm good to go.

    Yeah, idiots going crazy again. You would think they learn, but they never do. Crisis management and panic buying is their creed. Common sense, though, is grossly absent.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    4,263

    Default

    Makes me glad I have the holiday foods and wine already in-house here.

    Still need to try to find pie-crust (cuz it's not t-day without pumpkin pie).

    Otherwise the pantry and freezer are pretty full, just going to keep them that way week to week.

    Haven't seen any shortages of anything here yet, except 2 weeks ago at Costco I noticed they were out of the Kirkland paper towels. We have plenty stored, of course there's always room for one more.

    Oh! Which reminds me:

    Thanksgiving wine recommendations:

    Chateau Ste Michelle Harvest Riesling
    https://www.totalwine.com/wine/white...qAfQcAYCrTpnqY

    Summit Estates Riesling
    https://www.totalwine.com/wine/white...1nXA1NiY4NH9gg

    Both very good and available at Total Wine (best to check online inventory, they can order if out of stock). Trust me these 2 are worth looking for!
    Last edited by bruss01; 11-20-2020 at 12:45 PM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    46

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Illini Warrior View Post
    if you're following the nationwide reports from the semi-sheeple "preppers" on the more questionable sites like Reddit >>> the pure sheeple in some of these areas are going Virus looney AGAIN - TP and wipe cleanouts - cases & cases of water - canned goods & frozen foods - ect ect

    locally we have massive new case spikes >>> don't see the craze around here
    Maybe they only have short supplies in those areas? If not, panic buying is so common I wouldn't be surprised anymore.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •