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Thread: 150,000 projected fatalities in next 3 weeks?

  1. #1
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    Default 150,000 projected fatalities in next 3 weeks?

    So I find it disturbing that the experts are still saying this number is a projected count for the US by end of April. As I write this, the US death toll is published as 6586. To get to 150,000 in 3 weeks we would be looking at a jump in numbers that is nothing short of a catastrophe.

    How in the world can we still be looking at an increase like this in such a short amount of time? Since were still under 10,000 I keep waiting for the experts to lower that projection but I have not seen that yet.

    Any thoughts on why they’re not adjusting those projections?

    Thx,
    HD
    Today we did what we had to do.They counted on America to be passive.They counted wrong. Reagan 1986

  2. #2
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    I personally think it's a Jedi mind trick to get the people to ****ING LISTEN >>> NYC is in a world of crap because they refused to listen to the FEDs and kept on NYCing like DeBlasio was encouraging ...

    I don't think it'll be anywhere near that 150k number - but it'll be bad - might be half that around 75k -80k >>> the middle of the country is doing OK - even the major cities ....

  3. #3
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    The Doctors who made those estimates have been proven wrong. Yet, certain "news" organizations keep using them. If the US was checking everyone for the virus, we are quite sure that the number of dead compared to who has been proven to have it and survived would be something like 0.04%....If you look at the Cruise ship that had some cases. Basically everyone was a possible bad case elderly and such. How many had multiple preexisting issues? How many died? Looking at those numbers we know it will be below 0.1%......

  4. #4
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    Because most people are accustomed to thinking in linear terms, not in exponential terms.

    They can easily understand that if a hose puts out one gallon in 30 seconds, in two minutes it will put out 4 gallons. That makes sense to them, they can easily visualize it because things like this with a constant rate are familiar to us, we deal with them all the time.

    With viral spread, you don't get a linear increase... you don't get a constant rate, you get a constant factor of expansion instead. One infection becomes two... but two infections doesn't become 3, it becomes 4. And then 4 doesn't become 5, it becomes 8... doubling every cycle. That still seems like small potatoes until you get up into the triple digits and then things start to go all haywire and you ask WTF JUST HAPPENED! because the expansion starts becoming astronomical at those numbers in just a few more cycles.

    This is very foreign to what most people are familiar with, it seems ridiculous to see it on paper without working through the inexorable, unforgiving math that gets you there.

    The whole benefit of the "social distancing" is it cuts down the number created in each new cycle, and pushes the cycles further apart. That is the "curve flattening" effect we hear so much about but a lot of people seem to still not really understand.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  5. #5
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    I prefer PS (physical separation) to Social distancing. SD seems like a liberal term to me
    =
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  7. #7
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    All good points indeed. It's just amazing what their models are predicting and I agree with Illini Warrior, I feel its mostly a tactic to get the distancing importance through to the public. Or perhaps that the model numbers that could have been if we have distanced ourselves. Still disturbing that they're continuing to claim those numbers. Sheesh! Little scary boys...
    Today we did what we had to do.They counted on America to be passive.They counted wrong. Reagan 1986

  8. #8
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    Exponential spread. That is what we know. We also know that as hospitals get overwhelmed, the case fatality rate increases(Italy is over 11% fatality rate right now while we are around 3%).


    With exponential increases, you get a 10 fold increase every 10 days.


    So today 6,200 deaths.
    10 days from now we will have about 62,000 deaths.
    10 days after that will yield 620,000 deaths


    All of that is if the CFR does NOT change AND that is if no other lock down measures are put into place. Exponential increase is VERY difficult for us to wrap our heads around.
    Prepare for the worst, hope for the best

  9. #9
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    I just wish we cold get true numbers, but yea I guess that doesn't put the fear in citizens. Apparently about any death that they can put corona or cover on, they will.
    Once on safari in deepest darkest Afganistan we ran out of Gin, and were compelled to survive on food and water for several days.


    I typically carry a flask of vodka for snakebites. I also carry a small snake.- W. C. Fields

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by KINGCHIP View Post
    I just wish we cold get true numbers, but yea I guess that doesn't put the fear in citizens. Apparently about any death that they can put corona or cover on, they will.
    Me too.
    Prepare for the worst, hope for the best

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