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Thread: Economic impact of Covid-19

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by explo72 View Post
    dow 15,000 I am thinking
    You may be right. It's under 20k today for the first time in a long time. The day Trump was inaugurated it opened at 19,795. Who would have guessed a few weeks ago that the DOW would lose 33% of it's value this fast? Mind-boggling. I think it's beyond doubt that we are in "Black Swan" as well as "Bear Market" territory now.
    Last edited by bruss01; 03-18-2020 at 02:01 PM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by explo72 View Post
    dow 15,000 I am thinking
    I have been thinking the exact same thing... 14-15k...

  3. #63
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    crude just hit 18 yr low

    I am taking delivery of 100 gallons off road diesel tomorrow
    $1.72 delivered

    I was thinking of waiting a few more days because it was $1.87 on Monday, but beginning to be concerned about supply disruptions.
    Will be buying more in a few days.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by explo72 View Post
    crude just hit 18 yr low

    I am taking delivery of 100 gallons off road diesel tomorrow
    $1.72 delivered

    I was thinking of waiting a few more days because it was $1.87 on Monday, but beginning to be concerned about supply disruptions.
    Will be buying more in a few days.
    Good idea, wish I could do the same.

  5. #65
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    Dow at closing today down 913.21 to 19,173.98

    Got to be a bottom here somewhere but I don't think I feel it yet.

    With the entire states of CA and NY locked down, it looks like the market doesn't feel it yet either.

    Side note - due to a couple of traders showing up sick to the exchange, the NYSE trading floor will be closed starting Monday.

    NYSE will temporarily close its trading floor
    https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/18/ny...-trading-only/

    The organization says it took this step as a precautionary step to protect the health of traders and employees on the floor. So far, two people who worked on the floor have tested positive for COVID-19, though they hadnít been in the building this week.
    Apparently the question is, how long were they asymptomatically spreading the virus before developing symptoms and being tested... and how long will those they came into contact with "incubate" before spreading it to others? Good call to close the floor and do all the trading electronically IMHO.
    Last edited by bruss01; 03-20-2020 at 04:02 PM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  6. #66
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    The Federal Reserve has gotten some of the desired results from pumping in untold billions (or maybe trillions) of fresh new dollars. The DOW went up over 2100 points today.
    The Sec of Treasury said we need about a $6 trillion cash infusion. Plus what the Federal Reserve is doing!

    Federal Reserve Admits It Pumped More than $6 Trillion to Wall Street in Recent Six Week Period
    https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/...x-week-period/

    Kudlow says proposed coronavirus stimulus package is roughly $6 trillion

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uolZH4wNvw4

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiwall View Post
    The Federal Reserve has gotten some of the desired results from pumping in untold billions (or maybe trillions) of fresh new dollars. The DOW went up over 2100 points today.
    And it's up nearly another 1000 points (at one point, before sliding back about half that) today.

    Couple of thoughts - for some investors, it's enough that "they are doing something" about the market turmoil, and they see this as "the rebound". They are buying back in to the market, which is causing share prices to go up.

    Question 1 - is that optimism based in fundamentals, as in, the underlying fundamental being an expected months-long contraction caused by disruptions in international trade and domestic activity due to the Wuhan coronavirus? My answer here is no, it's not based on any immediate perception that what made it go down, has been fixed.

    Question 2 - is that optimism based on the fact that MASSIVE QE is taking place, which will decrease the dollar's worth (inflation) which makes all prices (including stock prices) go up? Very possibly. Stock prices are fluid, compared to bonds and other investment vehicles with relatively stable rate of return.

    Based on the "rising tide lifting all boats" paradigm, we may not see the 15k bottom we anticipated, and the market may re-stablilize closer to it's current 21k level. Then as the international trade situation, and the economic impact domestically of the CV lockdowns begins to ease, we would see gradual progress back to pre-crash levels, especially after November's election. This bit of inflation was no doubt at least partly intentional on the part of those crafting the stimulus plan.

    I'm not confident enough in my understanding of the situation to jump back in with both feet just yet. But I have re-targeted my regular paycheck contributions to start going into the market index funds I had going previously. Still keeping the nest egg in bonds for now, but will consider getting those back in the market in a graduated fashion, if my confidence in the outlook improves.
    Last edited by bruss01; 03-25-2020 at 05:14 PM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  8. #68
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    Default Dicker'n still works

    =
    Make America under God Again
    *Putting*America*Back*Together*

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruss01 View Post
    Couple of thoughts - for some investors, it's enough that "they are doing something" about the market turmoil, and they see this as "the rebound". They are buying back in to the market, which is causing share prices to go up.

    Question 1 - is that optimism based in fundamentals, as in, the underlying fundamental being an expected months-long contraction caused by disruptions in international trade and domestic activity due to the Wuhan coronavirus? My answer here is no, it's not based on any immediate perception that what made it go down, has been fixed.

    Question 2 - is that optimism based on the fact that MASSIVE QE is taking place, which will decrease the dollar's worth (inflation) which makes all prices (including stock prices) go up? Very possibly. Stock prices are fluid, compared to bonds and other investment vehicles with relatively stable rate of return.

    Based on the "rising tide lifting all boats" paradigm, we may not see the 15k bottom we anticipated, and the market may re-stablilize closer to it's current 21k level. Then as the international trade situation, and the economic impact domestically of the CV lockdowns begins to ease, we would see gradual progress back to pre-crash levels, especially after November's election. This bit of inflation was no doubt at least partly intentional on the part of those crafting the stimulus plan.
    Been thinking about this and doing a bit of research as opportunity permits.

    Number 2 above - I believe it is the case that we'll see some stock price increase due to the inflationary effect of the "stimulus" but that will be slow in coming and will probably not hit until Q3 or Q4. The 3k uptick is a reaction to the stimulus passage and the President's remarks about lifting the lockdowns by Easter - which personally I feel is unwarrantedly optimistic.

    Number 1 above - the underlying fundamentals have not changed, in fact, the situation is worsening by the day with NYC having a frightening CV19 death toll in just the past 48 hours. The most credibile (IMHO) estimates I'm finding are projecting April-May as being the peak of the crisis, starting to ease as we head into summer.

    Based on those bits of perspective, I believe the recent 3k uptick in the DOW is what they call a "Bull Trap" - a sudden rebound in stock price after a hard downturn (a longer and more significant uptick than what they call a "dead cat bounce"), which lasts just long enough to sucker a lot of buyers back to the market (which pushes the price up more) before reality sets in and they crash even harder.

    After thinking this through, I don't have a problem with putting a few bucks out there to test the water, but I'm definitely not going on a BUY BUY BUY spree anytime soon because we don't have a bottom firmly in sight yet. When it comes back, I think it will come back fairly aggressively, and in response to a change in the fundamentals as observed in the real world.

    I found this article interesting... they're probably not far off the mark IMHO.

    Hereís why stocks are rising on terrible news
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/here...ible-news.html

    House approves and Trump signs recovery bill into law

    Trump signs $2 trillion coronavirus bill into law as companies and households brace for more economic pain
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...us-house-vote/

    And yet the DOW closes down 900+ points.

    Dow Ends Down More Than 900, or 4%, After House Passes $2 Trillion Stimulus Bill
    https://www.thestreet.com/markets/st...navirus-032720
    Last edited by bruss01; 03-27-2020 at 05:44 PM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  10. #70
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    Or are stocks going up because the Federal Reserve is buying companies?

    The Fedís Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...b51_story.html

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