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Thread: Economic impact of Covid-19

  1. #21
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    Oh, they surely will... but I'm waiting until after the election at this point.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  2. #22
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    If the coronavirus isn’t contained, a severe global recession is almost certain

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if...d=mw_app_share
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruss01 View Post
    We derisively call Walmart "China mart" but think for a sec about how many Walmarts in smaller communities have put all the independent local stores out of business. Those Walmarts are now not uncommonly the only point of general supply for a significant distance... with the next nearest town often in the same situation. Are those Walmarts going to be able to keep the doors open long without re-supply? What happens if they close or simply run out of commodities? I would wager that will get some people's attention, quite an unwelcome surprise.
    Small town Walmart closing up shop, As employees & customers scramble for an alternative
    https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/th...PVE5ALEYIZWMA/

    A local community staple is closing its doors. The Walmart in Wadesboro will permanently close on April 3.

    “Nobody saw this coming, nobody,” said Maggie Helms. “This is probably the main store in this town that everybody shops at.”

    The town of Wadesboro sent a press release that said town officials are “equally as shocked and saddened by this news as the public.”

    “There’s probably a couple hundred jobs getting ready to get lost. That’s the sad part,” said Helms.
    ...
    A spokesperson for Walmart said the store could close sooner than April 3 if it sells out of merchandise.
    Nobody saw it coming... with the entire country of China calling in sick to work and zero cargo ships arriving. *shakes head*

    According to at least two separate sources, Walmart has disabled the ability of store managers to place "on demand" manual orders as of today. This means they will only be receiving their regular warehouse allocation (automatic re-orders). Read into it whatever you will. I suspect it's to manage "runs" on items at some stores, but it may also be tied to the beginnings of the supply chain disruptions.
    Last edited by bruss01; 03-05-2020 at 12:53 PM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunn View Post
    Buy stocks now!!!!! The markets WILL REBOUND!!!!!
    Rebound not coming along so well just yet. After a week of free-fall declines and meteoric rises the DOW is down another 877.14 in trading as of now, today. ( ETA closed down -972.90 today)

    My expectation is a few more weeks of wildly volatile markets, followed by a sustained slump this summer and early fall. Likely followed by gradual improvement from mid-fall through the end of next summer. Probably fully recovered 12-16 months from now. We'll see if this ends up being anywhere close to correct. I'll be re-evaluating around September-October. Probably will jump back in a few weeks before the election if Trump's odds are looking good... probably 25% every 2 weeks until I'm re-invested again. That presupposes they have a decent handle on this virus issue by then and supply line challenges have been resolved.

    And here it is laid out pretty plainly.

    "100,000+ Cases of Coronavirus in USA is COMING!" a source tells Fox Business Maria Bartiromo

    Last edited by bruss01; 03-05-2020 at 03:45 PM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  5. #25
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    I think the Dow will recover when it becomes clear that the covid 19 virus is under some control and people have a better understanding of what it is going to do.

    Right now the markets are jittery and uncertain; that makes it volatile. Swings both up and down are part of that.

  6. #26
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    DOW opens down 751.49 this morning after losing 900+ yesterday.

    How's that recovery coming along? Glad I didn't buy on 2/24.

    It'll be a little while yet, methinks. While I agree that the market will rebound, that will happen after the supply chain disruption has been resolved... which will happen probably a month or two after the worst of the coronavirus impact has passed. Not days or weeks... likley months.
    Last edited by bruss01; 03-06-2020 at 09:39 AM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  7. #27
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    If you aren't in the market long term (as I am) corrections and instabilities like this can certainly be nerve-racking. I lost about half the value of my investments in the 2008 crash, and trust me, I was more jittery than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

    It's probably a good idea not to follow the market news closely at times like this if you haven't replaced your blood with ice water!

  8. #28
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    I think that's good over-all advice for the average investor Tommy - at least in a normal market. If one can act in advance of the market, and that action is based on solid fundamentals - that can be a winning move. The other approach is to act like a rock, and just sit there and take the ups and the downs as they come - your advice. Over the long term (years) that is a solid strategy. Those who try to follow the market or who knee-jerk fiddle with their investments weekly... invariably lose more than they gain in doing so.

    I am generally a set-it-forget-it investor, who typically only re-visits his investment strategy maybe once a year, if that. In this case, it was an instance of seeing a Black Swan and getting out ahead of the curve... a window which I *ALMOST* missed. Anyone who hasn't pushed the *eject* button yet is probably well-advised to "ride it all the way to the bottom and back up the other side" because it's a paper loss at this time - until you take it out, at which point it becomes a *real* loss. But I definitely would not encourage anyone to make a large lump sum investment in the stock market at this time. My humble (and seldom sought!) opinion is that there will be much better opportunities late this calendar year. YMMV. It wouldn't surprise me to see the market flirt with 20000 points as a low ebb.

    ETA: Should add that my investments were simply moved from a managed fund that is heavily in stocks, to a managed fund that is almost exclusively bonds - I did not "cash out" my retirement, that would be insane with the tax penalties involved.
    Last edited by bruss01; 03-06-2020 at 11:41 AM.
    "The thing about smart people is they seem like crazy people to dumb people" - Stephen Hawking

  9. #29
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    Keeping the big picture in mind, and not being distracted by people throwing distractions (red herrings) in your path are important. Lots of examples here of that. For example, think of this, rather than local Walmart issues, reloading or other pleasantries:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqDrZYNafAg
    =
    Make America under God Again
    *Putting*America*Back*Together*

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by bruss01 View Post
    I think that's good over-all advice for the average investor Tommy - at least in a normal market. If one can act in advance of the market, and that action is based on solid fundamentals - that can be a winning move. The other approach is to act like a rock, and just sit there and take the ups and the downs as they come - your advice. Over the long term (years) that is a solid strategy. Those who try to follow the market or who knee-jerk fiddle with their investments weekly... invariably lose more than they gain in doing so.

    I am generally a set-it-forget-it investor, who typically only re-visits his investment strategy maybe once a year, if that. In this case, it was an instance of seeing a Black Swan and getting out ahead of the curve... a window which I *ALMOST* missed. Anyone who hasn't pushed the *eject* button yet is probably well-advised to "ride it all the way to the bottom and back up the other side" because it's a paper loss at this time - until you take it out, at which point it becomes a *real* loss. But I definitely would not encourage anyone to make a large lump sum investment in the stock market at this time. My humble (and seldom sought!) opinion is that there will be much better opportunities late this calendar year. YMMV. It wouldn't surprise me to see the market flirt with 20000 points as a low ebb.

    ETA: Should add that my investments were simply moved from a managed fund that is heavily in stocks, to a managed fund that is almost exclusively bonds - I did not "cash out" my retirement, that would be insane with the tax penalties involved.
    Sounds like the soundest strategy, from my perspective. As for the DOW hittin' 20K, to my mind that's about right, when you look at a rational correction. Hopefully, that'd include cuttin' away all the deadwood in the overblown car and home loan markets that've been abused so much lately. The only reason dealers are sellin' pick-'um-up-trucks at the prices they're gettin' is 'cause financin' goes out 6-7 years. I don't care if it's personal or business, that kind of borrowin' just keeps the prices up and allows manufacturers to subsidize "green" vehicle and economy car sales.
    Or, so it appears from where I sit. At least this flu outbreak is shakin' up the market in what I see as a good way, but I'm lucky in that it won't affect my income or lifestyle unless there's an outright panic. Hell, even then I believe that I'm covered for months, financially, plus fuel and food-wise.

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