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Thread: bug out fallacy

  1. #11
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    My route takes me from rural to more rural. San Antonio stands directly in my way between home and BOL. My kids both live in SA so them getting out of there is important.

    They have been instructed to get out of city the most direct way possible and hopefully know some back ways out. I figure that they have a half day to get out with power outage being the thing that most accelerates that time, because the bad guys come out quick when power goes.

    Knowing that my kids are safely out of town is paramount but I realize that comms may be difficult. We all have Garmin InReach units with low plans so another possibility as well as CB's in Jeep CJ's and of course, cell phones.

    Provided we feel good about their escape, wife and I probably have a day or two to gather up all stores and head first west and then south. My worst concern is blockades in small towns and how to handle them. Once I cross IH 10 west about 80 ales west of San Antonio, I can take almost entirely to dirt backroads all the way to ranch. Now ranch is 20-25 miles from Mx but it's already lawless down there, so I don't expect things to change much.
    Once on safari in deepest darkest Afganistan we ran out of Gin, and were compelled to survive on food and water for several days.


    I typically carry a flask of vodka for snakebites. I also carry a small snake.- W. C. Fields

  2. #12
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    "My worst concern is blockades in small towns and how to handle them."

    it will likely take a few days until the severity of the SHTF hits home enough that towns/county/state begin blockading - exception being a pandemic - an organized blockade for a town will likely be for conserving their resources for themselves and looking for problem people - as long as you just pass thru you'll be OK - hooligan barricades that will eventually start up are the problem ....

  3. #13
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    I guess I wouldn't worry about blockades much because people are just very slow to react to anything. You are talking just a couple days or less and normalcy bias will keep most people from doing much of anything. I could see roads being blocked by vehicles due to lack of fuel or violence. Could likely get around most of that be driving in the medians or through shallow ditches. Those blockages would not be planned but just accidental and most might even be weaved through. Though as fast as you expect to bug out you might have clear sailing the whole way.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by KINGCHIP View Post
    My route takes me from rural to more rural
    Me also......I have 2 routes to decide on at the time:
    1) Freeway to County route. 1-1/2 hrs, goes through 1 medium sized (30,000) town.
    2) Backroads. 2 hrs. Goes directly through another medium sized town. Small windy 2 lane roads through the mountains and down into the desert.
    The decision will have to be made at the time of whatever incident causes us to take off. EMP/Earthquake/Etc. There could be blockades either way I suppose, no way of guessing ahead. There are off-road routes available off of either of these routes that I know about, and both of our vehicles are 4 x 4's.

    Both our kids (30's) live in the huge city and know what/how/where to go.......but that is a huge concern for me. Do I risk everything to go into the big city to get them or trust that they will get there by themselves? They won't be armed or as dangerous as I will be at that time....

    I have no answers, just talkin'....

  5. #15
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    relocating either leisurely and not under duress (emigration) or under a pressing timeline not of our doing (refugee / bug out) is something to consider.
    so many possibilities, so many variables.

    My worst concern is blockades in small towns and how to handle them.
    one suggestion which might sound a bit goofy is CERT (Community Emergency Response Team).
    If you can join a real one (like I did) they will often issue an official photo id badge like I have.
    That allowed me to get an Emergency license plate for all my vehicles.

    But you can also buy CERT logo apparel, badges and photo id off of ebay. I have all those as well.

    Normally when I travel (even by the rare airplane) I will be wearing CERT logo clothes.
    I figure it gives me an edge on fellow travelers.

    Some personal examples.
    First one put an end to all the "you're the crazy prepper" from the kids.

    Few Christmases ago we had family reunion with our kids and spouses in North Georgia.
    We got from Airbnb large house.
    But there were torrential rains and flooding.
    First morning there forcast was worst was yet to come, so I bundled two daughters in law into my 2500HD 4X4 crew cab and headed into town.
    As we were driving I told them I had enough food in the vehicle to keep all of us alive for a few days as well as a 2,000 watt inverter in the vehicle to keep essentials in the rental house running as well as ham radio to listen in to first responder frequencies.

    Of course I had on my full CERT outfit - lanyard w id, logo hat, & raincoat windbreaker.
    https://propacusa.com/product/lanyard-cert-logo/
    https://propacusa.com/product/ball-cap-cert-pro-model/
    https://propacusa.com/product/coachs...nal-cert-logo/

    We get the the first roadblock / detour and the local deputy was about to wave us thru seeing my getup, thinking I was probably evacuating these poor damsels in distress, but I told him we would take the same detour as everyone else.

    Then we get into the supermarket so the girls could do their shopping and there was a Starbucks in the store so I went to grab some coffee.
    LOL, people were coming up to me and saying, "so glad you are here". Starbucks gave me the coffee for free, hehe.
    Now in point of fact had things gotten worse I would have joined the volunteers, but turned out to be a day of a few creeks over the banks and a few impassable roads.

    Next episode is I am sitting at my home office computer and two sheriff vehicles go by lights and siren, which is very unusual because we live on a really out of the way road. Then Volunteer Fire Dept pumper w lights and siren, so i am thinking one of my neighbors has a house fire, so I quick grab my CERT hat, cert shirt and boogie out the door maybe 2 min behind them. I am thinking I am about to help fight a house fire.

    Arrive at the scene of a vehicle fire just off the road.
    Which was a relief it was none of my neighbor's property.
    So I decided to test my CERT logo, so I walked right past the police tape.
    One of the deputies looks at me and seeing my uniform says, "What agency are you with?" to which I reply Community Emergency Response Team and show the logo on my shirt, and say "This is my area of responsibility", from then on I was just like one of the LEO group that was there.

    Last episode is there is a big music fair about an hour away in Bristol which 1/2 the town in TN and 1/2 in Virginia.
    The main street is called State Street and has little brass plaques in the center line w Virginia on one side an TN on the other.
    I am licensed in TN with a Handgun Carry Permit which allows both concealed or open carry.
    So I once again dressed in full CERT uniform including desert boots, kakail emt pants, CERT logo shirt, CERT logo hat & carrying my CERT logo backpack which is my medical kit. I also had a baofeng radio strapped to about where LEO carry their Motorola's even down to the remote mike on my shoulder just like them.

    And my .40 cal full frame hand gun openly carried on my right hip.

    Now this festival draws about 50,000 people and they close down State Street for the duration.
    And of course lots of LEO around, but the cool thing for me was that there were Bristol VA police, Va state troopers, va sheriff, as well as same from TN side so at least 6 law enforcement agencies.

    And I deliberately walked up and down the festival on both sides of the state line.
    Not one LEO ever challenged me.
    I would purposefully look at them and give them a head tip as if to say, "Hi fellow LEO"
    Now what i was doing was legal since I have the handgun carry, but if I had been in civilian clothes and openly carrying I imagine that some LEO would have at least asked a few questions.

    Of course your mileage may vary but for a few bucks looking official (legally) might just be that tiny edge that gets you thru an official roadblock.

    and you all know that the very first thing LEO will do for a localized event like a tornado is establish a perimeter and lot let anyone in.
    looking official might get you past that perimeter

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiwall View Post
    I guess I wouldn't worry about blockades much because people are just very slow to react to anything. You are talking just a couple days or less and normalcy bias will keep most people from doing much of anything. I could see roads being blocked by vehicles due to lack of fuel or violence. Could likely get around most of that be driving in the medians or through shallow ditches. Those blockages would not be planned but just accidental and most might even be weaved through. Though as fast as you expect to bug out you might have clear sailing the whole way.

    if you're following up behind the main Golden Horde wave - all kinds of disabled vehicles - you got a totally different concern >>>> car jacking - unlike during a hurricane evac the breakdown victims know there's going to be litle hope of a recourse - won't be any resources for more fuel or repairs - no emergency services - small hope of any samaritans ....

    you also need to be wary of totally pizzed off locals - wave came thru like a locust swarm - could have been looting and all kinds of possible violence >>>> they'll be shooting first and worrying about right later ....

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruss01 View Post
    If the point being made is that many bugout plans are poorly thought out, he's absolutely right.

    However, I've seen charred skeletons stoically sitting in burned-out vehicles in mute testimony to the fact that if you don't bug out when it's time to bug out, you may not get a chance to re-consider your plan. It happened to dozen's of people in this state, recently. You can't just "wait out" a raging fire. Same thing in New Orleans - the whole town is under water and won't be habitable for months or years. If you're not ready to bug out... you may end up waiting in your atic with a hatchet for a helicopter to lift you out with nothing but the clothes on your back. And word to the wise - they only have so many helicopters, there are lots of other idiots with the same foresight as you, and how fast did you say that water's rising? You get my drift.

    "Listening to Katrina" has the right take on bugging out. It's a transitional short-term plan to take you from a stable long term situation that becomes untenable, and ends with you in a new stable long term situation. It's a question of planning for everyone, planning for most reasonable contingencies, and having somewhere to go.

    I loved the part where the guy described looking in the BOB of a guy who was purportedly "bugging out" with infants... no diapers. Really? That's not even fit to take to a day at Disneyland! So, what... you're going to evac through stop/go traffic (or worse, carry) this crying, screaming kid with a festering case of diaper rash, no way to get him clean and comfortable, let alone the stench you all have to endure for hours on end? That's a complete fail of the thought process there.

    Bugging out USUALLY makes a very poor first resort because it separates you from the place where you have the most resources and control - your home. But if it's on fire, under water, or in front of a creeping lava flow - it's not "home" anymore and if you don't leave you're likely dead. Do you have a plan for this? We all ought to.

    His comments about people having "emotional anchors" apply to some folks. My answer is, if it's time to bug out then I'm convinced me and mine are dead if we stay, or have a highly elevated chance of ending up that way. I may like "you" next door neighbor... but not so much that I want to spend my last minutes on this earth watching my wife and daughter die right along side of you and me because I "cared so much" and wanted to help you though you couldn't be bothered to make a bug out plan for you and yours.

    The real problem here is again - not thinking things through. Even the grizzly, unpleasant things like dirty diapers and teen girls who won't abandon their pet kitty though there's no practical way to take it with. Our dogs go where we go... but cats don't travel well. You see, I own a .22 pistol and my wife hasn't yet figured out why... but it's for merciful disposal of a much loved animal that we wouldnt' be able to take with us. Shhh. I know, lots of unpleasant truths have to be faced square on, unflinching, and dealt with if you're going to have a real plan vs having a "plan" with more holes than a fish net.

    So... stock market crashed? Civil unrest? Severe weather? Don't be in a hurry to "bug out" in a panic and think later. Chances are, if you're decently prepared, you can ride things out best right where you are. But always keep those charred skeletons in the back of your mind and have the plan to leave before the going gets tough because sometimes those whose only plan was to tough it out turn out not being as tough as they thought.

    This...

    The time to bug out is a couple of days before you decide to bug out. I'd rather try and ride out a disaster at home than be one of the teaming masses of refugees.

    The one group you NEVER want to be a part of is refugees....you have literally only what you have with you, and you are totally dependent on those around you for your safety and security.
    Good medicine in bad places

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by explo72 View Post
    My sort of bug out experience, a recollection and some thoughts.

    Sept 11, 2001 morning I was in Schaumburg, Illinois in my Holiday Inn hotel room preparing for a 9 AM CST client meeting with the Chief Futurist of Motorola (he had the best job in the world).

    Had a ticket to fly home to Knoxville, TN that afternoon, so would be checking out of the hotel.

    After showering and while getting dressed and packing I turn on the news and see the first reports of the North Tower burning. At that point, it was a news flash and they were saying a small plane had hit. (Impact was 8:46 AM EST).

    As I was watching as I continued to pack, at 9:03 AM EST I watched as the second plane hit. Obviously not a small plane and now obviously not an accident. Terrorism, and organized. A few minutes later the word comes of additional hijackings.

    At this point I am thinking no telling how wide spread and how many planes are involved. Conflicting reports - fog of war stuff.

    I called my employee traveling with me and told him to be ready to leave asap and that we werenít going to Motorola. I was fearing that the Sears Tower might be a target or perhaps OíHare airport which was only 10 miles from my location.

    I hurriedly finished packing, called Motorola to tell them we werenít coming. They were of course all glued to the TV as well. We had a brief conversation about the Internetís ability to quickly disseminate news and wondered if the broadcast news organizations could keep up. Just as I was about to leave the room I saw the South Tower collapse. That was the last live TV I saw that day.

    I have previously stayed at the hotel that used to be in the World Trade Center and have had business meetings on various floors so I knew that 20,000 + people worked there. I was thinking casualties in that range, I knew that the world had just changed.

    I called my office to tell them I was driving home and keeping the rental car and told them to inform the rental car company of that. Boy that was a great decision, within a few hours all rental cars in the US were booked by people with grounded flights.

    Our shortest route from Schaumburg to Knoxville would have been south, but I elected to go due west on Interstate 90 after consulting with my office. I drove and hour and a half to Rockfort, IL before catching I39 to go South because that avoided populated areas.

    What would have been an 11 hour drive on a normal shortest distance route took us about 16 hours.

    Here are the lessons I took away.

    For the first 4 hours the highways were absolutely and completely deserted, and I mean deserted.
    Never seen that few vehicles on the road before or since. And for the first 8 hours or so the traffic was very very light - about what you see on super bowl Sunday or some day like that.

    This time period is the golden window of escape after a sudden shtf event when everyone sits stunned watching TV (now their smart phone twitter feed) frozen with shock and indecision.

    We only stopped for fuel and to grab snacks at the gas stations, but every one was playing news stories on their TVs. There were very few patrons in the gas stations. I never let the gas go below 1/2 tank all the way home, fortunately it was compact vehicle that got good mileage. We probably stopped only 4 or 5 times the whole day.

    We did experience one instance of post SHFT price gouging in middle of nowhere Indiana where we had to pay $20/gallon of gas - which I happily paid.
    So my takeaways were. Act, donít freeze.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

    But providence also comes into play - things outside your control.

    Had this happened a few hours later after I had turned in the rental car I would have either been trapped at OíHare if my flight hadnít taken off or if in the air forced to land who knows where, in both cases no rental cars available.

    And of course worse, any of us could have been a passenger on one of those hijacked planes.

    So in any shtf event there are going to be things happen outside your scope of control. It is how you adapt and react to those that makes the difference.
    BIL was on the way to his dad's funeral outside Shanksville PA on 9/11, they HEARD the plane hit the ground, but didn't know what it was. He didn't return his rental either, he and his sister drove all the way back to San Antonio, and she continued on to Yuma where her border patrol husband was waiting.
    Common sense is so uncommon nowadays it ought to be reclassified as a super power

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ak474u View Post
    BIL was on the way to his dad's funeral outside Shanksville PA on 9/11, they HEARD the plane hit the ground, but didn't know what it was. He didn't return his rental either, he and his sister drove all the way back to San Antonio, and she continued on to Yuma where her border patrol husband was waiting.

    not a bad mental exercise to make a GH shopping list for a SHTF long distance drive home >>> not a whole lot of subsequent tangent problems associated with 911 - but what should you buy to have in the trunk & backseat if there was alllll kinds of potential problems ?????

  10. #20
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    not a bad mental exercise to make a GH shopping list for a SHTF long distance drive home
    I kinda did that few years ago.
    We had a family reunion in Colorado (2 hours outside Denver) - which for me was 24 hours drive time + stops - roughly 1,500 miles.
    Just the wife and I.

    The SHTF event most concerning was the Yellowstone Volcano which was stirring back then (and has continued). Mt. St. Helens kind of event.
    We took my 2500HD crew cab w 8ft bed containing an 80 gallon diesel tank which together with the internal tank gave me almost enough range to go one way without refueling.

    The plan was to refuel every time we needed to stop for bathroom breaks, so as to keep the vehicle topped off.
    Then when arriving in CO immediately top off the fuel so we had max range if we needed to bug out.

    Wife and I discussed that the kids still think we are a bit off our rocker, so we did not share the plan with them.
    They were 6 adults and 1 child besides the wife and I.
    They all few in and rented vehicles - of course high mileage standard sedan types - comfortable for 5 only.

    The plan was to convince them to leave immediately if there was a volcanic event, we felt we had enough credibility with them to convince them.
    We would caravan in their biggest vehicle with 4 adults + kid with us following in the pickup with the 2 other adults.
    If we could not convince them to abandon that second vehicle then it would be use following those two vehicles.

    Hope would be to hit the golden hour and make one or two gas stops for their vehicles (and mine) and drive the rental cars until they ran out of gas then abandon the and get everyone into the pickup with probably 2 sons possibly riding in the bed at that point.

    In addition to the fuel tank in the bed of the truck i had a standard pickup tool box with all the prep supplies.
    We carried 10 gal of water from home and enough food for 8 adults for about a week just in case.
    Weapons of course, long and short.

    The only unusual items for this trip were a few items from my CBRN locker.
    That wife and my full face respirator w extra filters, kevlar suits.
    Then a supply of paper face masks for the others.

    I also had the air filter changed before we left to give it a bit more life should the ash cloud catch up.

    Unfortunately, there was not a good route home. North would take us closer. No good roads going south.
    Most direct route which was ESE would take us to Denver before heading East, did not want to go north because ash cloud would normally (depending on wind) be north of CO at least at the beginning, that's another reason for trying to hit the golden hour and get past Denver as soon as possible.
    The only hope would be to able to outrun the ash fall which would entirely depend on how fast we got to leave after the eruption.

    Of course nothing happened, but it was a good thought exercise.

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