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Thread: it's hitting the fan

  1. #1
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    Default it's hitting the fan

    we have all seen the pictures and video's of the flooding in the upper midwest
    haven't heard much about the impact on food production.
    what areas are considered the "breadbasket of the US"?
    our central plains states - ND,SD,MN,WI,KS,NB,IL,MO
    have a look at this map and ask yourself how are they going to plant this spring?

    https://www.climate.gov/sites/defaul...9-03-21-01.png

    most farms in this region are huge, often measuring in thousands of acres
    which means huge tractors that weigh several tons - not good on soggy ground.
    and if it is too wet the seeds just rot.
    normally late April and early may are corn and soybean planting times in this area w MO about now and MN mid May.
    that's going to be delayed at best which means less wheat,corn & soybean production.
    which is probably going to mean much higher prices.

    Spring Outlook: Historic, widespread flooding to continue through May
    The Missouri River flooding will continue as an above normal snowpack in the North begins to melt and move downstream. Forecasters warn the flooding could continue through May.
    then consider all the damage to farming infrastructure.

    here's some excerpts of an interview with the Iowa Sec of Agriculture from Mar 20

    Underwater - that is the status again today across a lot of the Midwest.

    In Nebraska, Governor Pete Ricketts says roads, levees and other infrastructure have been damaged to the tune of almost a half a billion dollars.

    Missouri, the flooding has made travel treacherous. More than a hundred roads are closed. Amtrak has suspended service between Kansas City and St. Louis.

    And in Iowa, just shy of half of the counties have been declared disaster areas by Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds. She says farm fields look like lakes and that the flooding will significantly impact the spring planting season.

    Julie Kenney is Iowa's deputy secretary of agriculture. She joins me now from Des Moines.

    KELLY: I want to start by asking what kind of calls you are fielding from farmers and ranchers in your state. What are you hearing? So share a story or two with us, if you would, from some of the people who are in the thick of it right now.

    KENNEY: Yeah. You know, we've got some acreages where floodwaters have just inundated their grain bins, whether they're storing corn and soybeans from the previous growing season. Those farmers are looking at those situations and trying to figure out what they will do once the waters finally recede because that grain won't be able to be fed to livestock or anything like that. So we have other farmers who have pigs or turkeys or cattle or other forms of livestock that they're just focused on the health and well-being of those animals and being sure that they can get food to them. Some of our county roads are in really, really bad shape, so to get feed trucks there has been a challenge.

    KELLY: I mean, are you talking to some farmers, some ranchers who are expecting this year just to be a write-off?

    KENNEY: I don't think we're to that point. I mean, the planting season is just around the corner. Most farmers here would plant toward the end of April and into May,
    some links for more research
    https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/flood...ted-3-billion/
    https://www.wired.com/story/those-mi...ch-much-worse/
    https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...ok-spring-2019
    https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/s...ue-through-may

  2. #2
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    Default

    I'd say it's more like a fart hitting the fan. Just bad enough to get you to think about life but not really affecting anything..
    Don't bring skittles to a gun fight.

  3. #3
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    the only possible benefit involved - the the flooding wiped out some of that grain storage that's been sitting in surplus for 3-4 seasons now ....

    if you think the US marketplace will get hit hard - we get it first and the exporting comes second - China decided to play embargo with the US >>>> they got it now ...

  4. #4
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    Trump is an amazing person. All this to get ethanol out of our fuel. Sheer genius, I tell you.
    Once on safari in deepest darkest Afganistan we ran out of Gin, and were compelled to survive on food and water for several days.


    I typically carry a flask of vodka for snakebites. I also carry a small snake.- W. C. Fields

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by KINGCHIP View Post
    Trump is an amazing person. All this to get ethanol out of our fuel. Sheer genius, I tell you.
    Wonder if he has a pick up and ring line wo the Almighty.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by flock6 View Post
    I'd say it's more like a fart hitting the fan. Just bad enough to get you to think about life but not really affecting anything..
    I think that sums it up.

    But this is going to be a big economic hit (mostly to the taxpayers). Many billions of dollars in infrastructure, FEMA aid, farm aid, etc. And this is just one disaster. We got 3/4 of the year yet to go. All that water is heading towards the Gulf and could cause a lot of damage on the way. When all the flooding gets done then it will be fire season out west. Then it will be hurricane season in the east. And tornadoes in the center of the nation. Where does all the money for aid come from?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiwall View Post
    ...Where does all the money for aid come from?...
    Magic! Thanks to O'Bama the government just prints it up and (presto) we have all the money we need. I love this country.
    Approach with a calm resolve, attack with reckless indifference. Gladius Republicae!
    "...use Gold like it's gunpowder..."

  8. #8
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    I think you guys might be underestimating the short and long term effect of these events on food prices.
    maybe I am wrong, but one of the things we do as preppers is to look long term when others just see sort term.
    to see events and potential follow on implications before others do and prep for that event
    And look for potential "black swan" events - EMP is a good example

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

    If i am right then what we will see over the next few months or years is a large increase in food prices, how soon and how much is unknowable, but from the 100,000 foot view a disruption to the prime food production engine of the United States will be felt. I think substantially. Have a quick scan of these articles, I have put a few excerpts below with article links at the end:
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In Fremont County alone, local farmers pulled together a quick estimate that the flood affected 28 local producers’ farmland. Of those who stored grain, only three were able to move theirs before the water came and ruined nearly 1.8 million bushels of corn and soybeans.

    For some, the flooding could mean losing both their 2018 crops and their 2019 crops, because the lingering water stripped topsoil and left behind sand that could delay planting. Most farmers had planned to plant seed in fewer than four weeks.

    Few can afford those kinds of losses in good years, but the waters have made an already grim situation increasingly dire. The flooding will affect farmers here for years.

    For me as a farmer, there are flooded acres here that to think that I’ll be able to plant a crop in 45 days is just virtually impossible.”

    Farmers in parts of Nebraska and Iowa had precious little time to move themselves from the floodwaters that rushed over their lands last week, so many left their livestock and last year's harvest behind. They lost so much, staying in business will be a mighty struggle.Across parts of the Midwest, hundreds of livestock are drowned or stranded; valuable unsold, stored grain is ruined in submerged storage bins; and fields are like lakes, casting doubt on whether they can be planted this year.

    Now, the unthinkable has happened. Record floods have devastated a wide swath of the Farm Belt across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and several other states. Early estimates of lost crops and livestock are approaching $1 billion in Nebraska alone. With more flooding expected, damages are expected to climb much higher for the region.

    As river levels rose, spilling over levees and swallowing up townships, farmers watched helplessly as the waters consumed not only their fields, but their stockpiles of grain, the one thing that can stand between them and financial ruin.

    “I’ve never seen anything like this in my life,” said Tom Geisler, a farmer in Winslow, Nebraska, who said he lost two full storage bins of corn. “We had been depending on the income from our livestock, but now all of our feed is gone, so that is going to be even more difficult. We haven’t been making any money from our grain farming because of trade issues and low prices.”

    Cattle carcasses have been found tangled in debris or rotting in trees, while tractors and other expensive machinery are stuck in mud, unable to be moved. At Geisler’s farm in Winslow, Nebraska, two trucks and a tractor were seen buried in mud in wooden barns where water pooled.

    “We should have been getting into planting for next season, but now all of our equipment is flooded and it’s going to take at least three to four weeks to bring back that equipment into shape,” said Geisler.

    Multiple washouts and high water on BNSF Railway Co’s main lines have caused major disruption across parts of the Midwest, the company warned on its website. The flooding also has disrupted part of Hormel Foods Corp’s supply chain, the company told Reuters.

    We are having to travel three miles through pasture and cropland just to get out because our roads are gone,” she says. “And the corn fields are going to be devastating to get in and plant and get that going, because usually we're planting within the next two weeks and it's not going to happen.”


    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...utures-n986071
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/21/us/fl...oss/index.html
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1R12J0
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...utures-n986071
    https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019...floods-farmers

  9. #9
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    Default

    I think you guys might be underestimating the short and long term effect of these events on food prices.
    You could be correct because we are all just giving our opinions.
    ruined nearly 1.8 million bushels of corn and soybeans.
    The USA grows between 2 and 3 Billion bushels per year of corn along with 4 to 5 billion bushels of soybeans. So while 2 million destroyed bushels of those is a lot, it is just a tiny fraction of what we produce each year.

  10. #10
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    Default

    might want to step up on stocking up on foods..

    As Many As A Million Calves Lost In Nebraska” – Beef Prices In The U.S. To Escalate Dramatically In The Coming Months

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/....-coming-months
    things often don't go as planed.have a plan B?
    be prepare,be worried,be careful.and watch you 6

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