Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 29

Thread: bug out fallacy

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    East TN Smokey Mountains
    Posts
    4,826

    Default bug out fallacy

    lot of wisdom in this video, guy has a bunch of other good ones also.

    http://www.captainsjournal.com/2019/...oing-anywhere/

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    3,714

    Default

    If the point being made is that many bugout plans are poorly thought out, he's absolutely right.

    However, I've seen charred skeletons stoically sitting in burned-out vehicles in mute testimony to the fact that if you don't bug out when it's time to bug out, you may not get a chance to re-consider your plan. It happened to dozen's of people in this state, recently. You can't just "wait out" a raging fire. Same thing in New Orleans - the whole town is under water and won't be habitable for months or years. If you're not ready to bug out... you may end up waiting in your atic with a hatchet for a helicopter to lift you out with nothing but the clothes on your back. And word to the wise - they only have so many helicopters, there are lots of other idiots with the same foresight as you, and how fast did you say that water's rising? You get my drift.

    "Listening to Katrina" has the right take on bugging out. It's a transitional short-term plan to take you from a stable long term situation that becomes untenable, and ends with you in a new stable long term situation. It's a question of planning for everyone, planning for most reasonable contingencies, and having somewhere to go.

    I loved the part where the guy described looking in the BOB of a guy who was purportedly "bugging out" with infants... no diapers. Really? That's not even fit to take to a day at Disneyland! So, what... you're going to evac through stop/go traffic (or worse, carry) this crying, screaming kid with a festering case of diaper rash, no way to get him clean and comfortable, let alone the stench you all have to endure for hours on end? That's a complete fail of the thought process there.

    Bugging out USUALLY makes a very poor first resort because it separates you from the place where you have the most resources and control - your home. But if it's on fire, under water, or in front of a creeping lava flow - it's not "home" anymore and if you don't leave you're likely dead. Do you have a plan for this? We all ought to.

    His comments about people having "emotional anchors" apply to some folks. My answer is, if it's time to bug out then I'm convinced me and mine are dead if we stay, or have a highly elevated chance of ending up that way. I may like "you" next door neighbor... but not so much that I want to spend my last minutes on this earth watching my wife and daughter die right along side of you and me because I "cared so much" and wanted to help you though you couldn't be bothered to make a bug out plan for you and yours.

    The real problem here is again - not thinking things through. Even the grizzly, unpleasant things like dirty diapers and teen girls who won't abandon their pet kitty though there's no practical way to take it with. Our dogs go where we go... but cats don't travel well. You see, I own a .22 pistol and my wife hasn't yet figured out why... but it's for merciful disposal of a much loved animal that we wouldnt' be able to take with us. Shhh. I know, lots of unpleasant truths have to be faced square on, unflinching, and dealt with if you're going to have a real plan vs having a "plan" with more holes than a fish net.

    So... stock market crashed? Civil unrest? Severe weather? Don't be in a hurry to "bug out" in a panic and think later. Chances are, if you're decently prepared, you can ride things out best right where you are. But always keep those charred skeletons in the back of your mind and have the plan to leave before the going gets tough because sometimes those whose only plan was to tough it out turn out not being as tough as they thought.

    Last edited by bruss01; 04-25-2019 at 05:13 PM.
    In a crazy world, it's the crazy man who can get by - and it's about to get cray-cray up in here.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Sweet Tennessee
    Posts
    3,933

    Default

    Well said Bruss
    Don't bring skittles to a gun fight.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Chicagoland
    Posts
    1,238

    Default

    I always point out that just randomly bugging out without a secure & prepared BOL >>>> just makes you a better for the moment refugee .....

    if the Katrina SuperDome fiasco didn't convince people - that you simply can't rely on the gooberment - even for natural disaster SHTFs - nothing will ...

    given a nationwide SHTF - resources are stretched and not concentrated into a relatively small geographic area - and a SHTF that just pops and is not weather plotted for 10 days - FEMA relief centers that should be decent won't stay that way very long ....

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    East TN Smokey Mountains
    Posts
    4,826

    Default

    good points all.
    bottom line is that if an shtf event hits suddenly it may be too late to "bug out"

    comes down to the difference between a refugee and an emigrant - which is only time.
    the emigrant moved on their own time, own pace, own location - a refugee doesn't

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    NW Ohio
    Posts
    884

    Default

    We don't have a BOL because the same issues could be affecting that location also. We do have a fully stocked 34' camper with all the amenities, and a full pantry that would take 5 minutes to hook up, and go. Several 5 gallon gas cans, and some clothes would be all we need to pack, or grab.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    East TN Smokey Mountains
    Posts
    4,826

    Default

    My sort of bug out experience, a recollection and some thoughts.

    Sept 11, 2001 morning I was in Schaumburg, Illinois in my Holiday Inn hotel room preparing for a 9 AM CST client meeting with the Chief Futurist of Motorola (he had the best job in the world).

    Had a ticket to fly home to Knoxville, TN that afternoon, so would be checking out of the hotel.

    After showering and while getting dressed and packing I turn on the news and see the first reports of the North Tower burning. At that point, it was a news flash and they were saying a small plane had hit. (Impact was 8:46 AM EST).

    As I was watching as I continued to pack, at 9:03 AM EST I watched as the second plane hit. Obviously not a small plane and now obviously not an accident. Terrorism, and organized. A few minutes later the word comes of additional hijackings.

    At this point I am thinking no telling how wide spread and how many planes are involved. Conflicting reports - fog of war stuff.

    I called my employee traveling with me and told him to be ready to leave asap and that we werenít going to Motorola. I was fearing that the Sears Tower might be a target or perhaps OíHare airport which was only 10 miles from my location.

    I hurriedly finished packing, called Motorola to tell them we werenít coming. They were of course all glued to the TV as well. We had a brief conversation about the Internetís ability to quickly disseminate news and wondered if the broadcast news organizations could keep up. Just as I was about to leave the room I saw the South Tower collapse. That was the last live TV I saw that day.

    I have previously stayed at the hotel that used to be in the World Trade Center and have had business meetings on various floors so I knew that 20,000 + people worked there. I was thinking casualties in that range, I knew that the world had just changed.

    I called my office to tell them I was driving home and keeping the rental car and told them to inform the rental car company of that. Boy that was a great decision, within a few hours all rental cars in the US were booked by people with grounded flights.

    Our shortest route from Schaumburg to Knoxville would have been south, but I elected to go due west on Interstate 90 after consulting with my office. I drove and hour and a half to Rockfort, IL before catching I39 to go South because that avoided populated areas.

    What would have been an 11 hour drive on a normal shortest distance route took us about 16 hours.

    Here are the lessons I took away.

    For the first 4 hours the highways were absolutely and completely deserted, and I mean deserted.
    Never seen that few vehicles on the road before or since. And for the first 8 hours or so the traffic was very very light - about what you see on super bowl Sunday or some day like that.

    This time period is the golden window of escape after a sudden shtf event when everyone sits stunned watching TV (now their smart phone twitter feed) frozen with shock and indecision.

    We only stopped for fuel and to grab snacks at the gas stations, but every one was playing news stories on their TVs. There were very few patrons in the gas stations. I never let the gas go below 1/2 tank all the way home, fortunately it was compact vehicle that got good mileage. We probably stopped only 4 or 5 times the whole day.

    We did experience one instance of post SHFT price gouging in middle of nowhere Indiana where we had to pay $20/gallon of gas - which I happily paid.
    So my takeaways were. Act, donít freeze.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

    But providence also comes into play - things outside your control.

    Had this happened a few hours later after I had turned in the rental car I would have either been trapped at OíHare if my flight hadnít taken off or if in the air forced to land who knows where, in both cases no rental cars available.

    And of course worse, any of us could have been a passenger on one of those hijacked planes.

    So in any shtf event there are going to be things happen outside your scope of control. It is how you adapt and react to those that makes the difference.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Mountains & Lakes of the extreme NorthEast
    Posts
    1,777

    Default

    HHmmm.... anyone thought of bugging out under water ? Rain and wind last week, this week, and supposedly next, I've got plenty of water !!


    Last edited by Winni; 04-27-2019 at 04:36 AM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    3,714

    Default

    Great account, Explo... thank you for sharing that.
    In a crazy world, it's the crazy man who can get by - and it's about to get cray-cray up in here.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Morgan County, Alabama
    Posts
    3,261

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Winni View Post
    HHmmm.... anyone thought of bugging out under water ? Rain and wind last week, this week, and supposedly next, I've got plenty of water !!


    Well, I don't have a submarine, so .... no.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •